What a dull day in the Bund today, when I left the office it had only done 772k lots by 16:00gmt, which is very low for that time of day. I found the price action not to my liking for most of the day and was very surprised to see that the strong Chicago pmi soon got shrugged off. Even the employment, new orders and the prices paid were all higher. Today was very much a stocks watch day with every down tick in the Dow being met with support in the Bund. Tomorrow I will be focusing on the UK manufacturing pmi at 9:30 then it will probably be time to catch up on all the blogs and weekly research until 15:00gmt. All eyes will firmly be on the ISM manufacturing figure to see if it follows the Chicago's uptick.
I get the impression that the Bund is finding support down at these price (115.85) levels and 3.94% ish seemed to hold in long before the euro started probing new highs against the dollar and sterling. Its unusual to see such a big gap on the Bund chart and I think we will probably take a look and visit it soon unless the ECB's rhetoric becomes more hawkish.
At 16:00 the yields were euro (2,5,10) 3.42%, 3.59%, 3.89%
US (2,5,10) 1.62%, 2.45%, 3.41%
Euro was 1.5847 and to stg 0.7972.
The low 5 year yield i quoted yesterday was for the German 5 year and not the eurozone 5 year. I have no idea why the two are so wide and cant help but feel these are erroneous quotes as Reuters still have German 5 years at 2.74% (DE5YT=RR) answers on a postcard please
Showing posts with label eurozone. Show all posts
Showing posts with label eurozone. Show all posts
Monday, 31 March 2008
Sunday, 30 March 2008
Last Trading day of March
Last day of the month tomorrow so will need to keep an eye out for any duration buying. We have a few figures out tomorrow to get our teeth into. These include (times in BST):
9:00 Euro Zone m3
10:00 Eurozone Flash CPI estimate
14:45 Chicago NAPM
There are a few other odds and ends out but I will be focusing on these numbers. I will be paying close attention to the loans to private sector of the M3 release to see if the squeeze in the euro libor rate has started to have more of an effect. Obviously the CPI flash will be closely watched but the surprise will be more so if the figure should come in lower as the ECB as already tee'd the market up for the CPI ticking up in the short run. It seems from watching the equities that people are beginning to look beyond the recession in the states. It wouldn't surprise me if the spin on a low Chicago number is that its a low point and we pick up from here. Either way the employment component will be watched for clues with Fridays NFPR.
Euro Yields at close on Friday were (2,5,10) 3.49%, 2.88%, 3.94%
US Yields at close (2,5,10) 1.64%, 2.49%, 3.44%
I am not sure why the Eurozone 5 year is so low but it doesn't look right to me and I feel it should be much higher.
9:00 Euro Zone m3
10:00 Eurozone Flash CPI estimate
14:45 Chicago NAPM
There are a few other odds and ends out but I will be focusing on these numbers. I will be paying close attention to the loans to private sector of the M3 release to see if the squeeze in the euro libor rate has started to have more of an effect. Obviously the CPI flash will be closely watched but the surprise will be more so if the figure should come in lower as the ECB as already tee'd the market up for the CPI ticking up in the short run. It seems from watching the equities that people are beginning to look beyond the recession in the states. It wouldn't surprise me if the spin on a low Chicago number is that its a low point and we pick up from here. Either way the employment component will be watched for clues with Fridays NFPR.
Euro Yields at close on Friday were (2,5,10) 3.49%, 2.88%, 3.94%
US Yields at close (2,5,10) 1.64%, 2.49%, 3.44%
I am not sure why the Eurozone 5 year is so low but it doesn't look right to me and I feel it should be much higher.
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