Tuesday, 1 April 2008

Recession over..?

Well the good news is with UBS posting $11.9billion loss in the first quarter the sub prime problems are behind us and the recession is but a distant memory. I Should have known from the amount of bearish rhetoric I read this morning that the stocks were going to have some seriously large gains. I always get a wonderful sense of understanding when I watch the Bund rally after a higher CPI figure and rally after a stronger Chicago figure, just because the stocks are a bit under pressure. Needless to say the large gains to the upside of the equities lead to a big sell off in the bond markets. The Doji in the UST's were indeed a good call and the Bund did make a flirt with the 4% yield. Amazingly I didnt manage to translate this into any profit. I have decided to try not to discuss my trading in my blog so there shall be no more mention of that, just my thoughts, moans and groans on the markets.
One interesting snippet that Bloomberg decided not to cover in the ISM breakdown was that prices paid was up to 83.5 +8%!! and increasing at a faster rate (as was the case in the chicago figure). Inflation what inflation I hear them cry? did you see the US CPI last month, benign was an understatement. Well I sure cant wait for this months release because the clues are that it will be a stinker.
At 16:00 the yields were as follows Euro (2,5,10) 3.51, 3.67, 3.98 and US at 1.77, 2.64, 3.56. the euro was at 1.5595 and against stg 0.7894 as the dollar staged a broad based rally. I would assume from the charts that the Equities are looking very constructive for a continued short term move higher and conversely the fixed income will be pressured. I still think that 4% will prove a big barrier for the Bund and think we will see the US/euro spread narrow some more as it tightened by 6bps today.
The calender tomorrow offers up Eurozone PPI, US Factory Orders and Bernanke testimony at 14:30.

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